Alternative transport scenario for Germany
Greenpeace, Transport & Environment
2024
The Federal Ministry for Transport and Digital Infrastructure’s (BMDV) transport forecasts form the quantitative foundation for the Federal Transport Plan (BVWP). The BVWP is the central instrument of Germany’s transport infrastructure planning.
The environmental organisations Greenpeace and Transport & Environment have tasked Prognos with modifying selected assumptions from the BMDV transport plan, to enable Germany’s mobility development to progress in a more climate friendly way.
The Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMDV) forecasts are made up of 123 premises, 17 of which have been adapted in the context of this study. The study shows that having a more climate-friendly focus in transport policy can lead to changes in transport demand.
This alternative scenario considers both the mobility desires and needs of both the economy and the population.
In the adapted scenario, the following aspects were different compared to the benchmark scenario:
Overall, the scenario shows: higher mobility costs for road travel and better public transport services can reduce the demand for transport via road and increase public transport use.
This, in turn, would habe financial impact – infrastructure policy that is not aligned with the government’s climate goals sets misplaced incentives for consumers, and ties up financial resources that could be better used elsewhere.
The project is based on a critical review of all the premises found in the BMDV transport forecasts. From the total 123 premises, we specifically selected 17 that are considered to have potential in the current climate context and then, in collaboration with the clients, reformulated them.
As a part of this, current discussions as well as real developments (e.g., the implementation of the Deutschland ticket, a majority of the population in favour of speed limits) are assessed.
These changed framework conditions are thus fed into the Prognos-Transport Demand model to newly calculate the key figures of person and freight transport and their development shown in comparison with the BMDV forecasts.
Go to study (PDF, in German)
More information on the project (greenpeace.de, in German)
Project team: Sven Altenburg (Head Mobility & Transport), Alex Auf der Maur (Senior Project Coordinator), Andreas Brutsche, Marie-Luise Zwicker
Last update: 12.01.2024
Climate-impacting transformation in the transport sector
ADAC Transport Index 2023 (in German)
Audi: Sustainable recycling of old vehicles
Principal, Head of Mobility & Transport
Senior Project Manager
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has been funding the e-bus market ramp-up since 2018. Together with our partners, we have been investigating how effective this funding has been.
The automotive industry is undergoing fundamental change. How does this effect employment? And what will it mean for the individual professions? We investigated this on behalf of the VDA.
Mobility in Germany is becoming increasingly sustainable. However, the transport sector is yet to achieve its national and international climate targets. The ADAC Mobility Index looks at the reasons why.
Prognos evaluates the "Model Projects Smart Cities" (MPSC) funding programme as part of the Coordination and Transfer Office under the direction of the DLR Project Management Agency.
We examined an economic challenge of transformation for the mobility region.
Which carbon accounting requirements will businesses have to be aware of in the future and what, specifically, will present the greatest challenge?
What level of investment will be required to ensure a climate-neutral transport sector by 2045? We calculated this on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, based on three scenarios.
Digitalisation, decarbonisation, electrification: The German automotive industry faces major challenges. Prognos led the accompanying research to the carbon assessment of the auto industry value chain, on behalf of the BMWK.
The electromobility of the future will interact with other intelligent systems. But for this to be possible digital technologies will have to be standardised. The study shows in which areas standardisation is particularly relevant and how standards are established.
The Federal Government has commissioned Prognos and other scientific institutes to analyse the climate impact of current state subsidies: Which measures are climate-damaging, which are climate-friendly?
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.