Expertise

Power & Renewables

Achieving global and national climate targets.

The expansion of renewable energies in Germany is central to achieving global and national climate targets. Increasingly renewable electricity generation is the basis for the decarbonisation of the heating market and the transport sector. In the future, energy supply for industry and aviation can also become climate-neutral through the generation of hydrogen and electricity-based energy sources.

Renewable energies in Germany

By now, renewable energies like hydropower, wind energy, photovoltaics, solar and geothermal energy as well as the use of biomass are highly developed and widespread. Technological advances and economies of scale have reduced generation costs: For example, ground-mounted solar and wind power plants have no cost disadvantages compared to fossil power plants. In 2023, renewable energies covered 52 percent of electricity consumption in Germany. In other sectors, the use of renewable energies was less advanced: In the heating market, the share of renewable energies was 19 percent, in transport 7 percent.

Securing the power supply

The transformation of the energy system towards the exclusive use of renewable energies is a major challenge. To secure electricity supply, the future energy system must connect millions of electricity producers, storage facilities and consumers across national borders and react flexibly to different weather situations and demands.

Power & Renewables: A selection of our services

Development and evaluation of energy policy instruments

We evaluate and further develop energy policy instruments and measures (e. g. Renewable Energy, WindSeeG, KWKG, BEHG, hydrogen strategy, sector coupling, PtX, coal phase-out, expansion of renewable energies) with a focus on economic costs, feasibility, CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions, supply security and electricity prices.

Electricity market scenarios and modelling

Based on the Prognos electricity market model we answer key questions related to the future development of the electricity system with regard to electricity generation, CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions, export balance, power plant park, expansion renewable energies and the future electricity market design.

Electricity price forecasts

We provide electricity price forecasts for wholesale electricity prices (base load, peak load, hourly electricity prices) as well as for end-user electricity prices for different consumption cases (private households, trade, industry, or individual use cases like charging prices for logistics companies).

Profitability analyses

We perform profitability analyses for assets (wind onshore, wind offshore, photovoltaics, hydroelectric power plants, CHP plants, renewable heat generation, storage, heat supply plants), mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as well as the calculation of market value factors or capture rates of renewable energies and contribution margins.

Studies and expert opinions

We prepare studies and expert opinions on energy-related topics (security of supply, market design, energy prices, energy and employment, etc.).

Public participation and consultations

We advise our clients on stakeholder participation and acceptance communication.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

In dialogue – electricity grid expansion in Germany

2023
| Project

Prognos supports transmission and distribution system operators in the planning and construction communication of the various power line construction projects at the extra-high and high-voltage level.

Electricity Price Forecasts 2024

2024
| Project

Electricity prices are closely linked to the development of gas prices. Using three supply scenarios for natural gas we developed forecasts for the development of electricity prices up to the year 2045.

Climate Neutral Germany – From Target Setting to Implementation

2024
| Project

How can Germany as an industry location achieve net zero by 2045, whilst still maintaining its competitiveness? This study updates our 2021 calculations made on behalf of Agora Think Tanks.

Greenhouse gas projections 2024 expert appraisal

2024
| Project

For the Council of Experts on Climate Change we conducted an expert appraisal to review the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas projection data.

Energy efficiency gap analysis

2024
| Project

Energy consumption for industry, buildings and transport has remained relatively stable for the last 20 years. A study for the German Industry Initiative for Energy Efficiency (DENEFF) shows how policy can use efficiency measures to counteract this stagnation.

CO2 amortisation of photovoltaic modules and storage

2023
| Project

The product range of an energy company was analysed in terms of various sustainability criteria, in particular climate impact, and its CO2 amortisation calculated.

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

2024
| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

Annual Energy Transition Monitoring

ongoing
| Project

What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.

German energy market design

2024
| Project

In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw.

Greenhouse gas effects of subsidies in Germany

2024
| Project

The Federal Government has commissioned Prognos and other scientific institutes to analyse the climate impact of current state subsidies: Which measures are climate-damaging, which are climate-friendly?

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

2023
| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line

2023
| Project

The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein.

Energy prices for industry, an international comparison

2023
| Project

Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

2023
| Project

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

Electricity price forecast 2023

2023
| Project

In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw.

Green electricity atlas

Expertise

What do the targets of the Renewable Energy Sources Act mean for the German regions? The Prognos Energieatlas shows the availability of green electricity – in all 400 districts and independent cities.

Gas balance: Saving efforts must be intensified

2023
| Project update

If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter.

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

Regulation of third-party access to heating networks

2022
| Project

The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK.

Interview with the Neue Zürcher Zeitung

2022
| Expertise

Energy expert Dr Almut Kirchner talks to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung about the Swiss energy system.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| Expertise

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Electricity price forecast

2022
| Project

How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw.

Climate-neutral electricity sector 2035

2022
| Project

This analysis for Agora Energiewende shows how the transformation of the German electricity sector can succeed by 2035.

Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios

2022
| Project

Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

Evaluation of combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany

ongoing
| Project

In the context of the energy transition, the role of combined heat and power is also changing. Prognos evaluates the development and develops recommendations for funding and legal bases.

Decentralised heat supply in a climate-neutral Germany

2022
| Project

What role does the heat pump play in a 100-percent renewable electricity system compared to hydrogen heating? An analysis for the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

Hydrogen: Energy carrier of the future?

2021
| Project

The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it.

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Climate neutrality & security of supply in the electricity market

2021
| Project

Assessment of the security of supply until 2030 of the scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany".

Electricity grid expansion makes headway

2020
| Project

For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss border.

EU’s Global Leadership in Renewables

2020
| Project

Prognos, together with COWI, CEPS, and Capgemini invent, examines Europe's position and competitiveness in global renewable energy value chains.

Prognos Charging Report 2020

2020
| Project

The Prognos Charging Report 2020 conducted on behalf of EnBW (Energie Baden-Württemberg) provides an overview of the status quo of charging infrastructure.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

Future of th electricity system II

2018
| Project

How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany.

Ex-post analysis of Swiss energy consumption 2015

2016
| Project

Swiss energy consumption in the last 15 years has been slightly reduced. Technological progress and policy intervention played a central role, as shown by the analysis conducted by Prognos, TEP and Infras.

Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept

2010
| Project

The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Marco Wünsch

Principal

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Leonard Krampe

Project Manager

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Inka Ziegenhagen

Senior Project Manager

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Axel Bohn

Vice Director, Head of Planning & Dialogue

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About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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