Application The skilled-worker model enables the forecasting of labour demand, labour supply, and the resulting labour and skilled workforce gap. It is possible to differentiate between sectors, occupations, requirement levels, and different regions. In addition, the model enables scenario calculations of various kinds, such as, the impact of a change in educational behaviour on the skills gap. Various fields of action and their quantitative contribution to reducing the potential skilled labour gap can also be identified. Model core In a first step, the occupational structure of the future labour demand is derived. The basis for this is the Prognos DINOS model labour demand forecast, differentiated by sector, and statistical data on the division of the employees in a sector by occupation. In a second step, the occupation-specific projection of future labour supply is based on the latest coordinated population forecast. In the third step, labour supply is compared with labour demand in each year under consideration and for each occupational group, thus identifying potential gaps. Application examples and projects Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage 2024 | Project The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany. Read more Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein ongoing | Project How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation? Read more Work Landscape 2025 2019 | Project The "Labor Landscape" study series has been providing an overview of the development of labor demand and labor supply in Germany since 2008. Read more Ecological transformation and dual education in Bremen 2021 | Project What is the demand for professionally trained specialists in Bremen as a business location in light of climate protection measures? Read more More on this model Model type Labour market supply-demand model Modelled dimensions Supply, demand, and potential worker gaps, differentiated by: Professions according to KldB2010 Requirement levels according to KldB2010 Sectors according to WZ2008 Region covered Germany Federal states Districts Time frame Simulation time frame until 2060 Databases Statistics from the Bundesagentur für Arbeit Federal and State Statistical Offices Microcensus Input Various time series on labour by sector, occupation, and requirement level Population forecasting Prognos DINOS model industry forecasts Output Supply, demand, and potential worker gaps, differentiated by occupation, requirements, and sector Feel free to contact us. Dr Almut Kirchner Partner, Director +41 61 32 73 331 almut.kirchner@prognos.com Go to profile Your name Phone Email address Your message Data protection notice Yes, I consent to Prognos processing the personal data I have provided above in order to best address the request I have made. I can revoke my consent at any time with effect for the future by sending an e-mail to info@prognos.com. You can find further information in our data protection declaration.