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Economy & Labour

Skilled-worker Model

Application

The skilled-worker model enables the forecasting of labour demand, labour supply, and the resulting labour and skilled workforce gap. It is possible to differentiate between sectors, occupations, requirement levels, and different regions. In addition, the model enables scenario calculations of various kinds, such as, the impact of a change in educational behaviour on the skills gap. Various fields of action and their quantitative contribution to reducing the potential skilled labour gap can also be identified.

Model core

In a first step, the occupational structure of the future labour demand is derived. The basis for this is the Prognos DINOS model labour demand forecast, differentiated by sector, and statistical data on the division of the employees in a sector by occupation. In a second step, the occupation-specific projection of future labour supply is based on the latest coordinated population forecast. In the third step, labour supply is compared with labour demand in each year under consideration and for each occupational group, thus identifying potential gaps.

Application examples and projects

Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage

2024
| Project

The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

ongoing
| Project

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

Work Landscape 2025

2019
| Project

The "Labor Landscape" study series has been providing an overview of the development of labor demand and labor supply in Germany since 2008.

Ecological transformation and dual education in Bremen

2021
| Project

What is the demand for professionally trained specialists in Bremen as a business location in light of climate protection measures?

More on this model

Model type

Labour market supply-demand model

Modelled dimensions

Supply, demand, and potential worker gaps, differentiated by:

  • Professions according to KldB2010
  • Requirement levels according to KldB2010
  • Sectors according to WZ2008

Region covered

  • Germany
  • Federal states
  • Districts

Time frame

Simulation time frame until 2060

Databases

  • Statistics from the Bundesagentur für Arbeit
  • Federal and State Statistical Offices
  • Microcensus

Input

  • Various time series on labour by sector, occupation, and requirement level
  • Population forecasting
  • Prognos DINOS model industry forecasts

Output

Supply, demand, and potential worker gaps, differentiated by occupation, requirements, and sector

 

Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331
almut.kirchner@prognos.com

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